Longitudinal Data Discontinuity in Electronic Health Records and Consequences for Medication Effectiveness Studies

Electronic health records (EHR) discontinuity, i.e., receiving care outside of the study EHR system, can lead to information bias in EHR-based real-world evidence (RWE) studies. An algorithm has been previously developed to identify patients with high EHR-continuity. We sought to assess whether applying this algorithm to patient selection for inclusion can reduce bias caused by data-discontinuity in 4 RWE examples. Among Medicare beneficiaries aged >=65 years from 2007 to 2014, we established four cohorts assessing drug effects on short-term or long-term outcomes, respectively. We linked claims data with two US EHR systems and calculated %bias of the multivariable-adjusted effect estimates based on only EHR vs. linked EHR-claims data since the linked data capture medical information recorded outside of the study EHR. Our study cohort included 77,288 patients in system 1 and 60,309 in system 2. We found the sub-cohort in the lowest quartile of EHR-continuity captured 72-81% of the short-term and only 21-31% of the long-term outcome events, leading to %bias of 6-99% for the short-term and 62-112% for the long-term outcome examples. This trend appeared to be more pronounced in the example using a non-user comparison rather than an active comparison. We did not find significant treatment effect heterogeneity by EHR-continuity for most subgroups across empirical examples. In EHR-based RWE studies, investigators may consider excluding patients with low algorithm-predicted EHR-continuity as the EHR data capture relatively few of their actual outcomes, and treatment effect estimates in these patients may be unreliable.