Hysteretic temperature sensitivity of wetland CH4 fluxes explained by substrate availability and microbial activity

Methane (CH4) emissions from wetlands are likely increasing and important in global climate change assessments. However, contemporary terrestrial biogeochemical model predictions of CH4 emissions are very uncertain, at least in part due to prescribed temperature sensitivity of CH4 production and emission. While statistically consistent apparent CH4 emission temperature dependencies have been inferred from meta-analyses across microbial to ecosystem scales, year-round ecosystem-scale observations have contradicted that finding. Using flux observations and mechanistic modeling in two heavily studied high-latitude research sites (Stordalen, Sweden, and Utqiaġvik, Alaska, USA), we show here that substrate-mediated hysteretic microbial and abiotic interactions lead to intra-seasonally varying temperature sensitivity of CH4 production and emission. We find that seasonally varying substrate availability drives lower and higher modeled methanogen biomass and activity, and thereby CH4 production, during the earlier and later periods of the thawed season, respectively. Our findings demonstrate the uncertainty of inferring CH4 emission or production from temperature alone, and highlight the need to represent microbial and abiotic interactions in wetland biogeochemical models.