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A Time-Series Analysis of the 20th Century Climate Simulations Produced for the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report
- Source :
- Estrada, F, Perron, P, Gay-García, C & Martínez-López, B 2013, ' A Time-Series Analysis of the 20th Century Climate Simulations Produced for the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report ', PLoS ONE, vol. 8, no. 3, e60017 . https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0060017, PLoS ONE, Vol 8, Iss 3, p e60017 (2013), PLoS ONE, 8(3):e60017. Public Library of Science, PLoS ONE
- Publication Year :
- 2013
- Publisher :
- Public Library of Science (PLoS), 2013.
-
Abstract
- In this paper evidence of anthropogenic influence over the warming of the 20th century is presented and the debate regarding the time-series properties of global temperatures is addressed in depth. The 20th century global temperature simulations produced for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fourth Assessment Report and a set of the radiative forcing series used to drive them are analyzed using modern econometric techniques. Results show that both temperatures and radiative forcing series share similar time-series properties and a common nonlinear secular movement. This long-term co-movement is characterized by the existence of time-ordered breaks in the slope of their trend functions. The evidence presented in this paper suggests that while natural forcing factors may help explain the warming of the first part of the century, anthropogenic forcing has been its main driver since the 1970's. In terms of Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, significant anthropogenic interference with the climate system has already occurred and the current climate models are capable of accurately simulating the response of the climate system, even if it consists in a rapid or abrupt change, to changes in external forcing factors. This paper presents a new methodological approach for conducting time-series based attribution studies.
- Subjects :
- Atmospheric Phenomena
Atmospheric Science
Economics
Climate Change
Economic Models
Climate
Climate commitment
lcsh:Medicine
Climate change
Social and Behavioral Sciences
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
SDG 13 - Climate Action
Atmospheric Dynamics
Statistical Methods
lcsh:Science
Climatology
Stochastic Processes
Multidisciplinary
Applied Mathematics
Statistics
lcsh:R
Global warming
Temperature
Complex Systems
Models, Theoretical
Radiative forcing
Probability Theory
Earth Sciences
Environmental science
Climate sensitivity
lcsh:Q
Climate model
Mathematics
Research Article
Downscaling
Subjects
Details
- ISSN :
- 19326203
- Volume :
- 8
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- PLoS ONE
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....1924b2df4cd344b0cc366921bb589eed