Starenje stanovništva u Hrvatskoj–sadašnje stanje i perspektive

Rad se bavi proučavanjem promjene sastava stanovništva Hrvatske prema dobi za tri desetljeća (1981. – 2011.). Razmatraju se uzroci i značajke demografskog starenja i uspoređuju s europskim zemljama. Podrobno se analizira stupanj ostarjelosti stanovništva i daje prostorna diferencijacija osnovnih obilježja tog procesa (do razine općine/grada); težište je na sadašnjem stanju (prema podacima popisa 2011.). Predočuje se perspektiva razmatranog procesa do 2031. (kretanje ukupnog broja stanovnika te promjene u sastavu prema dobi i stupnju ostarjelosti). U jednom poglavlju obrađuju se posljedice starenja stanovništva te se pokušava odgovoriti na pitanje kako usporiti taj razorni proces i ublažiti njegove posljedice. Zaključuje se da dalekosežna rješenja valja tražiti prije svega u povećanju rodnosti, čime će se potaknuti postupno pomlađivanje dobnog sastava. Druga skupina mjera odnosi se na doseljavanje, a treća na povećanje zaposlenosti mladih radi zaustavljanja njihova masovnijeg iseljavanja.
The paper deals with the study of changes in the composition according to age of the population of Croatia over three decades (1981 – 2011). Consideration is given to the causes and characteristics of demographic ageing and they are compared with European countries. The degree of population old age is analysed in detail and spatial differentiation is made of the basic features of that process (to the level of the local district/town); emphasis is placed on the current situation (in keeping with 2011 Census data). A projection of the process in question up until 2031 is submitted (the trend in the total number of the population and changes in its composition according to age group and degree of ageing). One of the chapters analyses the consequences of the ageing of the population and endeavours to answer the question of how to mitigate such consequences and to impede this destructive process. It is concluded that far reaching solutions should be sought primarily in increasing fertility, by which gradual rejuvenation of the population’s age composition could be stimulated. The second group of measures relates to immigration, and the third to increasing the employment rate of young people in order to halt their mass emigration.