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Exploring pathways for sustainable water management in river deltas in a changing environment
- Source :
- Climatic Change, 115(3), 795. Springer Verlag, Climatic Change, 115(3-4), 795-819. Springer, Climatic change, 115(3-4), 795-819. Springer
- Publication Year :
- 2012
-
Abstract
- Exploring adaptation pathways into an uncertain future can support decisionmaking in achieving sustainable water management in a changing environment. Our objective is to develop and test a method to identify such pathways by including dynamics from natural variability and the interaction between the water system and society. Present planning studies on long-term water management often use a few plausible futures for one or two projection years, ignoring the dynamic aspect of adaptation through the interaction between the water system and society. Our approach is to explore pathways using multiple realisations of transient scenarios with an Integrated Assessment Meta Model (IAMM). This paper presents the first application of the method using a hypothetical case study. The case study shows how to explore and evaluate adaptation pathways. With the pathways it is possible to identify opportunities, threats, timing and sequence of policy options, which can be used by policymakers to develop water management roadmaps into the future. By including the dynamics between the water system and society, the influence of uncertainties in both systems becomes clearer. The results show, among others, that climate variability rather than climate change appears to be important for taking decisions in water management.
- Subjects :
- geography
Atmospheric Science
Global and Planetary Change
River delta
geography.geographical_feature_category
Aardwetenschappen
business.industry
Computer science
Environmental resource management
Climate change
Variation (game tree)
Metamodeling
METIS-285651
Natural variability
IR-81627
business
Adaptation (computer science)
Futures contract
Sustainable water management
Subjects
Details
- ISSN :
- 01650009 and 15731480
- Volume :
- 115
- Issue :
- 3-4
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Climatic change
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....21be6cd90d57106e37451b14452f064b