The Stroke-Thrombolytic Predictive Instrument Provides Valid Quantitative Estimates of Outcome Probabilities and Aids Clinical Decision-Making

Computerized clinical decision support systems are increasingly popular in health sciences and have been demonstrated to improve practitioner performance.1 For an emergency closely related to ischemic stroke, acute myocardial infarction, a thrombolytic predictive instrument was developed for real-time use in emergency medical-service settings to identify patients likely to benefit from thrombolysis and to facilitate the earliest possible use of this therapy.2,3 A similar instrument, designed for ischemic stroke, could also prove to be useful. Thrombolysis for ischemic stroke remains underused even under ideal circumstances. Approximately 40% of emergency physicians in a national survey report that they would not use recombinant tissue plasminogen activator (rt-PA) for stroke, citing the risk of symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage and relative lack of benefit.4 Similar results were reported by Bobrow et al in a survey of the Arizona chapter of the American College of Emergency Physicians. Only 52% of the emergency physicians who responded to the survey indicated that they would endorse rt-PA use for stroke under ideal conditions.5 Physicians’ perceptions of risks and benefits of rt-PA for stroke are not uniformly accurate.6 Merino et al reported that only 11% (95% CI, 0 to 22) of surveyed emergency medicine physicians and neurologists could correctly convey the expected magnitude of beneficial effect of rt-PA, and that only 39% (95% CI, 21 to 57) could accurately report the expected rate of symptomatic and fatal intracranial hemorrhage of rt-PA.6 This misperception may interfere with their willingness to endorse this treatment. It would be helpful to draw a distinction between true and perceived efficacy and between true and perceived harm associated with rt-PA for stroke. In this issue of Stroke, Kent et al7 developed a Stroke-Thrombolytic Predictive Instrument (TPI) to aid physicians considering thrombolysis for a patient with acute ischemic stroke. The authors …