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Spatio-temporal Distribution of Suicide Risk in Iran: A Bayesian Hierarchical Analysis of Repeated Cross-sectional Data
- Source :
- Journal of preventive medicine and public health = Yebang Uihakhoe chi. 55(2)
- Publication Year :
- 2021
-
Abstract
- Objectives: We aimed to estimate the space-time distribution of the risk of suicide mortality in Iran from 2006 to 2016.Methods: In this repeated cross-sectional study, the age-standardized risk of suicide mortality from 2006 to 2016 was determined. To estimate the cumulative and temporal risk, the Besag, York, and Mollié and Bernardinelli models were used.Results: The relative risk of suicide mortality was greater than 1 in 43.0% of Iran’s provinces (posterior probability >0.8; range, 0.46 to 3.93). The spatio-temporal model indicated a high risk of suicide in 36.7% of Iran’s provinces. In addition, significant upward temporal trends in suicide risk were observed in the provinces of Tehran, Fars, Kermanshah, and Gilan. A significantly decreasing pattern of risk was observed for men (β, -0.013; 95% credible interval [CrI], -0.010 to -0.007), and a stable pattern of risk was observed for women (β, -0.001; 95% CrI, -0.010 to 0.007). A decreasing pattern of suicide risk was observed for those aged 15-29 years (β, -0.006; 95% CrI, -0.010 to -0.0001) and 30-49 years (β, -0.001; 95% CrI, -0.018 to -0.002). The risk was stable for those aged >50 years.Conclusions: The highest risk of suicide mortality was observed in Iran’s northwestern provinces and among Kurdish women. Although a low risk of suicide mortality was observed in the provinces of Tehran, Fars, and Gilan, the risk in these provinces is increasing rapidly compared to other regions.
Details
- ISSN :
- 22334521
- Volume :
- 55
- Issue :
- 2
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Journal of preventive medicine and public health = Yebang Uihakhoe chi
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....24f0d634e73821f097d2304c1e3bf5b5