Time-based loss in visual short-term memory is from trace decay, not temporal distinctiveness

There is no consensus as to why forgetting occurs in short-term memory tasks. In past work, we have shown that forgetting occurs with the passage of time, but there are two classes of theories that can explain this effect. In the present work, we investigate the reason for time-based forgetting by contrasting the predictions of temporal distinctiveness and trace decay in the procedure in which we have observed such loss, involving memory for arrays of characters or letters across several seconds. The first theory, temporal distinctiveness, predicts that increasing the amount of time between trials will lead to less proactive interference, resulting in less forgetting across a retention interval. In the second theory, trace decay, temporal distinctiveness between trials is irrelevant to the loss over a retention interval. Using visual array change detection tasks in four experiments, we find small proactive interference effects on performance under some specific conditions, but no concomitant change in the effect of a retention interval. We conclude that trace decay is the more suitable class of explanations of the time-based forgetting in short-term memory that we have observed, and we suggest the need for further clarity in what the exact basis of that decay may be.