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Potential occurrence of Puccinia sorghi in corn crops in Paraná, under scenarios of climate change
- Source :
- Repositório Institucional da USP (Biblioteca Digital da Produção Intelectual), Universidade de São Paulo (USP), instacron:USP
- Publication Year :
- 2019
-
Abstract
- In the face of climate change scenarios, it is important to evaluate the possibility of an increase in the incidence of corn crop diseases and to promote studies aimed at creating mitigation measures. This paper aims to study the impacts that regional climate changes may have on the potential occurrence of corn common rust (Puccinia sorghi), in the region of Castro, Parana (Brazil). The Eta climate model was driven by the global model CanESM2. We use the Historical simulation of the EtaCanESM2 model from 1981 to 2005, and future projections from 2046 to 2070 to simulate the occurrence of common rust. The criteria was adopted to simulate the common rust disease favored in environments with the minimum temperature lower than 8 °C, the maximum temperature higher than 32 °C, average temperature between 16 and 23 °C, and relative humidity higher than 95%. In Brazil, there are two different seasons for corn crop (Normaland Safrinha). Results show that relative humidity and minimum temperature simulated by the model presented good skills, approaching the observed data. Compared to the Historical simulation, the projections show a tendency to increase of maximum and minimum temperature in the future, and a tendency to decrease relative humidity. There is an increase in the number of days with the potential for the occurrence of the disease. The distribution of days with favorable conditions to rust disease tends to change in the future. In the Normaland Safrinhaseasons, there is a tendency to increase the number of days with favorable conditions to common rust occurrence. The influence of planting time is greater in Historical simulation when compared to future scenarios. The Safrinhaseason may present more days with the potential for the occurrence of common rust in the future than the Normalseason.
- Subjects :
- Crops, Agricultural
Atmospheric Science
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
Puccinia sorghi
Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis
Climate Change
Climate change
01 natural sciences
Rust
Zea mays
Crop
03 medical and health sciences
0302 clinical medicine
Relative humidity
0105 earth and related environmental sciences
030203 arthritis & rheumatology
Ecology
business.industry
Basidiomycota
MUDANÇA CLIMÁTICA
Sowing
Agronomy
Agriculture
Environmental science
Climate model
business
Brazil
Subjects
Details
- ISSN :
- 14321254
- Volume :
- 64
- Issue :
- 7
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- International journal of biometeorology
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....28dee32f588d978857fcbe07e2d9b370