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The long-range correlation and evolution law of centennial-scale temperatures in Northeast China
- Source :
- PLoS ONE, Vol 13, Iss 6, p e0198238 (2018), PLoS ONE
- Publication Year :
- 2018
- Publisher :
- Public Library of Science (PLoS), 2018.
-
Abstract
- This paper applies the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) method to investigate the long-range correlation of monthly mean temperatures from three typical measurement stations at Harbin, Changchun, and Shenyang in Northeast China from 1909 to 2014. The results reveal the memory characteristics of the climate system in this region. By comparing the temperatures from different time periods and investigating the variations of its scaling exponents at the three stations during these different time periods, we found that the monthly mean temperature has long-range correlation, which indicates that the temperature in Northeast China has long-term memory and good predictability. The monthly time series of temperatures over the past 106 years also shows good long-range correlation characteristics. These characteristics are also obviously observed in the annual mean temperature time series. Finally, we separated the centennial-length temperature time series into two time periods. These results reveal that the long-range correlations at the Harbin station over these two time periods have large variations, whereas no obvious variations are observed at the other two stations. This indicates that warming affects the regional climate system’s predictability differently at different time periods. The research results can provide a quantitative reference point for regional climate predictability assessment and future climate model evaluation.
- Subjects :
- China
Atmospheric Science
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
Climate
Climate Change
lcsh:Medicine
Research and Analysis Methods
Global Warming
01 natural sciences
Cognition
Learning and Memory
Memory
Fluctuation Analysis
Computational Techniques
0103 physical sciences
Atmospheric Dynamics
Mean radiant temperature
Predictability
010306 general physics
Long range correlation
lcsh:Science
Scaling
Long-Term Memory
0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Climatology
Series (stratigraphy)
Multidisciplinary
Spring (Season)
Physics
Winter
lcsh:R
Temperature
Biology and Life Sciences
Models, Theoretical
Atmospheric Physics
Geophysics
Physical Sciences
Earth Sciences
Detrended fluctuation analysis
Cognitive Science
Environmental science
lcsh:Q
Seasons
Scale (map)
Research Article
Neuroscience
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 19326203
- Volume :
- 13
- Issue :
- 6
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- PLoS ONE
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....2a2f18a033db769477c92dd4cf2aebff