Predicting suicidal ideation in a longitudinal high‐risk sample: Multilevel analyses and 12‐month trajectories

Background: The Interpersonal Theory of Suicide states that suicidal ideation (SI) results from perceived burdensomeness (PB) and thwarted belongingness (TB). Cross-sectional studies found associations with SI. This study examined the prospective prediction of SI. Methods: Three hundred and eight inpatients reporting severe SI or a recent suicide attempt were assessed four times within 12 months. The prediction of SI was examined using multilevel analyses, group comparisons, and logistic regression analyses. Results: Cross-sectionally, PB and TB were associated with SI. Prospectively, neither PB nor TB predicted SI. We found no autocorrelation of SI over time. Patients with persistent and fluctuating SI reported higher PB at T0. PB predicted the persistence of SI over 12 months. Conclusion: Results emphasize cross-sectional associations between PB, TB, and SI. PB and TB could not predict the intensity of SI over time. SI did not predict itself over time. PB was associated with a persistent trajectory of SI over 12 months.