Family, Fertility, and Sex Ratios in the British Caribbean

This paper re-evaluates the currently held view that unstable forms of conjugal unions depress fertility in the British Caribbean. It is shown that previous investigators overlooked the important variable of persistent male shortages at the mating ages caused by heavy male emigration. Fertility trends are observed and the conclusion reached that male emigration (independent variable) has not adversely affected fertility because the 'informal' polygynous character of the mating system acts as an intermediate variable mitigating the effect of the independent variable on fertility. Given these male shortages it is argued that a trend toward greater stability in conjugal relations would not, as previously assumed, result in higher fertility because permanent female celibacy and the average age of first entry into sexual unions for females would rise. Finally, the paper concludes by commenting on a recent discussion concerning the causal relationship between male shortages and the persistence of marital instability in the British Caribbean. The position is taken that both of these conditions are caused by social and economic factors which are not likely to change in the near future.