Derivation of a risk index for the prediction of massive blood transfusion in liver transplantation

Massive blood transfusion (MBT) remains a serious and common occurrence in liver transplantation surgery. This retrospective cohort study was undertaken to identify preoperative predictors of MBT and to develop a risk index for MBT in liver transplantation. Data were retrospectively collected on all liver transplantations carried out at a single institution between January 1998 and March 2004. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent predictor variables of MBT, defined as/=6 units of red blood cell concentrate (RBC) in the first 24 hours of surgery. The model was internally validated by bootstrapping. Of the 460 liver transplant recipients, 193 (42%) received/=6 units of RBC within 24 hours of surgery. Unadjusted analyses identified 12 preoperative predictors of MBT: age, height, gender, repeat transplantation, etiology of liver failure, and preoperative laboratory values (hemoglobin concentration, platelet count, international normalized ratio for prothrombin activity [INR], albumin, total bilirubin, and creatinine). In multivariable logistic regression, 7 independent predictors of MBT were identified: age (40 years), hemoglobin concentration (/=10.0 g/dL), INR (1.2-1.99, and2.0), platelet count (/=70 x 10(9)/L), creatinine (/=110 micromol/L for female subjects and/=120 micromol/L for male subjects), albumin (28 g/L), and repeat transplantation. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (ROC) for the model was 0.82. By using the regression beta coefficients to derive weights for each of these predictors, a risk index was developed that assigned each patient a score between 0 and 8. The ROC for this risk index was 0.79. MBT in liver transplantation surgery can be accurately predicted by 7 readily available preoperative predictors.