RISK FACTORS FOR PROGRESSION OF HUMAN IMMUNODEFICIENCY VIRUS (HIV) INFECTION AMONG SEROCONVERTED AND SEROPOSITIVE HOMOSEXUAL MEN

For identification of risk factors for progression of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, 746 homosexual men participating in a cohort study in Amsterdam, The Netherlands, were studied since October 1984. A total of 234 of these men were HIV antibody-positive at baseline, and 52 seroconverted during follow-up. These 286 individuals were categorized as high- and low-risk for progression to the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) on the basis of the presence or absence of HIV antigenemia, antibody to HIV core antigen, or a number of T helper lymphocytes less than 0.5 x 10(9)/liter during three or more subsequential blood samples. Ninety-six (41%) of the seropositives and 32 (62%) of those who seroconverted remained low-risk throughout the study period. Bivariate analyses revealed that educational level and a history of herpes zoster were associated with a low- and high-risk status, respectively. In multivariate analyses, a history of herpes zoster and a history of sexual intercourse with a person who had AIDS were associated with a more rapid disease progression. While herpes zoster is considered to be a marker of progressive immunodeficiency, a history of having sexual intercourse with a person who had AIDS points to the more virulent properties of HIV in these persons. Because both seropositives and seroconverters who had sexual intercourse with a person with AIDS had a more rapid disease progression, it seems plausible that being infected by a person with AIDS is a risk factor for a relative short incubation period.