Predictions and uncertainty quantification of the loading induced by deflagration events on surrounding structures

The threat of accidental hydrocarbon explosions is of major concern to industrial operations; in particular, there is a need for design tools to assess and quantify the effects of potential deflagration events. Here we present a design methodology based on analytical models that allow assessing the loading and structural response of objects exposed to pressure waves generated by deflagration events. The models allow determining: i) the importance of Fluid-Structure Interaction (FSI) effects; ii) the transient pressure histories on box-like or circular cylindrical objects, including the effects of pressure clearing; iii) the dynamic response of structural components that can be idealised as fully clamped beams. We illustrate by three case studies the complete design methodology and validate the analytical models by comparing their predictions to those of detailed CFD and FE simulations. We employ the validated analytical models to perform Monte Carlo analyses to quantify, for box-like structures, how the uncertainty in input design variables propagates through to the expected maximum force and impulse. We present this information in the form of non-dimensional uncertainty maps.