Effects of future sea level rise on coastal habitat

Sea level rise (SLR) and disturbances from increased storm activity are expected to diminish coastal ecosystems available to nesting species by removing habitat and inundating nests during incubation. We updated the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) Coastal Vulnerability Index, which provides a qualitative and relative assessment of a coastal area's vulnerability to erosion and shoreline retreat as a function of SLR and other factors, for the South Atlantic Bight. We considered a eustatic SLR projection of 14 cm by 2030. We linked long-term survey data for 3 sea turtle species, 3 shorebird species, and 5 seabird species to future coastal erosion vulnerability to SLR to understand effects of future SLR on nesting habitats. Over 2,000 km (43%) of the South Atlantic Bight coastline is projected to have an increase in coastal erosion vulnerability by the 2030s, with respect to its present vulnerability. Future vulnerability of SLR-induced erosion along the South Atlantic Bight is spatially variable, and the 11 coastal study species also varied in their use of coastal habitats with high future coastal vulnerability to SLR. For example, only 23% of high-density nesting habitat for the brown pelican (Pelecanus occidentalis) is expected to be at increased vulnerability to SLR, whereas >70% of the high-nesting density habitat for 2 seabird species (gull-billed tern [Gelochelidon nilotica], sandwich tern [Thalasseus sandvicensis]) is predicted to have higher future coastal erosion vulnerability by 2030. We provide predictions for the level of susceptibility of the study species to erosion from future SLR, which is the first step in managing coastal species for the changing environmental conditions associated with climate change and SLR. (c) 2019 The Authors. Journal of Wildlife Management Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of The Wildlife Society. USFWS; South Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative The findings and conclusions in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. Sea turtle data were provided by the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission Statewide Nesting Beach Survey, Canaveral National Seashore, University of Central Florida Marine Turtle Research Group, Archie Carr National Wildlife Refuge survey, Georgia Department of Natural Resources Sea Turtle Conservation Program, South Carolina Department of Natural Resources Marine Turtle Conservation Program, and North Carolina Wildlife Resources Commission Sea Turtle Project. D. Griffin provided data and information for South Carolina sea turtles. Seabird and shorebird nesting and occupancy data were provided by the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission, Georgia Department of Natural Resources, South Carolina Department of Natural Resources, and North Carolina Wildlife Resources Commission. J. Brush provided the Florida seabird and shorebird data and background information. We sincerely thank the individual permit holders and volunteers who collected the sea turtle data for Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina, and the Air Force, 45th Space Wing. We appreciate the contributions from S. Pierre and M. Auman in organizing the biological data. We also thank S. Maddock and W. Golder for wintering piping plover data. The authors thank S. Dellinger and J. Heisey for their contributions to the wave gauge data analyses. We thank S. Hagan and D. Passeri for their contribution to the shoreline change analysis. Funding for Florida's sea turtle monitoring program has been provided by grants to the Florida Wildlife Commission under Project E -7 from the USFWS and by proceeds from sales of the Florida marine turtle license plates. This work was funded by the South Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative.