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The Early Transmission Dynamics of H1N1pdm Influenza in the United Kingdom
- Source :
- Ghani, A, Baguelin, M, Griffin, J, Flasche, S, Pebody, R, van Hoek, A J, Cauchemez, S, Hall, I, Donnelly, C, Robertson, C, White, M T, Barrass, I, Fraser, C, Bermingham, A, Truscott, J, Ellis, J, Jenkins, H E, Kafatos, G, Garske, T, Harris, R, McMenamin, J, Hawkins, C, Phin, N, Charlett, A, Zambon, M, Edmunds, W J, Catchpole, M, Leach, S, White, P J, Ferguson, N M & Cooper, B S 2010, ' The early transmission dynamics of H1N1pdm influenza in the United Kingdom ', PL o S currents, vol. 1, RRN1130 . < https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2780827/ >, PLoS Currents; Vol 1, Europe PubMed Central, PLoS Currents
- Publication Year :
- 2010
- Publisher :
- Public Library of Science (PLoS), 2010.
-
Abstract
- We analyzed data on all laboratory-confirmed cases of H1N1pdm influenza in the UK to 10th June 2009 to estimate epidemiological characteristics. We estimated a mean incubation period of 2.05 days and serial interval of 2.5 days with infectivity peaking close to onset of symptoms. Transmission was initially sporadic but increased from mid-May in England and from early June in Scotland. We estimated 37% of transmission occurred in schools, 24% in households, 28% through travel abroad and the remainder in the wider community. Children under 16 were more susceptible to infection in the household (adjusted OR 5.80, 95% CI 2.99-11.82). Treatment with oseltamivir plus widespread use of prophylaxis significantly reduced transmission (estimated reduction 16%). Households not receiving oseltamivir within 3 days of symptom onset in the index case had significantly increased secondary attack rates (adjusted OR 3.42, 95% CI 1.51-8.55).
- Subjects :
- medicine.medical_specialty
Oseltamivir
Medicine (miscellaneous)
Bioinformatics
Travel abroad
Incubation period
law.invention
03 medical and health sciences
chemistry.chemical_compound
0302 clinical medicine
law
Epidemiology
medicine
030212 general & internal medicine
Index case
030304 developmental biology
QR355
Infectivity
0303 health sciences
business.industry
Influenza
3. Good health
Transmission (mechanics)
chemistry
business
Demography
Serial interval
Subjects
Details
- ISSN :
- 21573999
- Volume :
- 1
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- PLoS Currents
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....2e87a0285cf98d61539f88fea4a5f07f