Integrated flood risk assessment of the Arial Khan River under changing climate using IPCC AR5 risk framework

Bangladesh is situated at the confluence of GBM basins, with 90% of the basin area locating outside the country. Future climate change will lead to intense, prolonged, and frequent floods in Bangladesh. An integrated flood risk assessment that transforms flood risks from transboundary river basins to the local administrative level is necessary. A 1D/2D hydrodynamic model is developed for flood vulnerable Arial Khan River feed by basin-scale hydrologic model for low (RCP2.6) and high (RCP8.5) climate scenarios. An increasing trend in flood depth, duration, and area is observed from the early (2020s) to the end (2080s) of the century for both scenarios. The difference between both RCPs is minimal from the 2020s to 2050s but becomes very pronounced in the 2080s. The depth-duration-area with equal weightage provides better hazard results for the area. Flood risk is assessed using the IPCC AR5 framework incorporating vulnerability and exposure. Some medium-hazard zones fall into high-risk zones due to high exposure and vulnerability to flooding. The areas along the left reach are found more hazard-prone, while the areas on the right side are more risk-prone in the 2080s of RCP8.5. The hazard/risk maps will help policymakers identify priority areas for planning a sustainable flood management strategy. HIGHLIGHTS Flood risk is transferred from transboundary river basins to local administrative levels using a multi-model hydrological-hydrodynamic-statistical modelling system.; High-resolution bias-corrected GCM climate data is used.; IPCC AR5 climate scenarios and risk framework are considered.; Future flood hazard and risks are assessed for Arial Khan River Floodplain for the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s.; Medium hazard zones might have high flood risk in the future.