Accuracy of transcranial magnetic stimulation and a Bayesian latent class model for diagnosis of spinal cord dysfunction in horses

Background: Spinal cord dysfunction/compression and ataxia are common in horses. Presumptive diagnosis is most commonly based on neurological examination and cervical radiography, but the interest into the diagnostic value of transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) with recording of magnetic motor evoked potentials has increased. The problem for the evaluation of diagnostic tests for spinal cord dysfunction is the absence of a gold standard in the living animal. Objectives: To compare diagnostic accuracy of TMS, cervical radiography, and neurological examination. Animals: One hundred seventy-four horses admitted at the clinic for neurological examination. Methods: Retrospective comparison of neurological examination, cervical radiography, and different TMS criteria, using Bayesian latent class modeling to account for the absence of a gold standard. Results: The Bayesian estimate of the prevalence (95% CI) of spinal cord dysfunction was 58.1 (48.3%-68.3%). Sensitivity and specificity of neurological examination were 97.6 (91.4%-99.9%) and 74.7 (61.0%-96.3%), for radiography they were 43.0 (32.3%-54.6%) and 77.3 (67.1%-86.1%), respectively. Transcranial magnetic stimulation reached a sensitivity and specificity of 87.5 (68.2%-99.2%) and 97.4 (90.4%-99.9%). For TMS, the highest accuracy was obtained using the minimum latency time for the pelvic limbs (Youden's index = 0.85). In all evaluated models, cervical radiography performed poorest. Clinical Relevance: Transcranial magnetic stimulation-magnetic motor evoked potential (TMS-MMEP) was the best test to diagnose spinal cord disease, the neurological examination was the second best, but the accuracy of cervical radiography was low. Selecting animals based on neurological examination (highest sensitivity) and confirming disease by TMS-MMEP (highest specificity) would currently be the optimal diagnostic strategy.