(Re-)Emergence of agroterrorism during the food crisis

Agroterrorism is the deliberate use of biological agents as well as other means against agricultural production and food supply. There are some advantages of agroterrorism over human targeted bioterrorism e.g. lone wolves or small groups of spies can collect pathogen and transport material without jeopardising their own health as well as with a low cost action a high impact on food security can be achieved. During the ongoing Autumn and Winter, huge parts of the world will be facing hunger, while some countries such as the Russian Federation or People's Republic of China have stockpiled food and attempted to minimise risk of introduction of pathogens on their territory to a large extent. COVID-19 pandemic additionally has contributed to a significant increase in knowledge and technology that can be used for the deliberate introduction of pathogens 1) the ease of acquisition (i.e. knowledge of basic microbiology and pathogenesis); 2) verification of the infectious agents (i.e. access to point-of-care diagnostics); 3) ease of introduction (i.e. knowledge of basic epidemiology as well as transmission routes). The threat of agroterrorism is currently the highest since signing BWC (1972) due to food crisis and war in Ukraine (the repertoire of terrorists may change over the next months/years).I will show how simple the intentional introduction of animal or plant pathogens into a disease-free area may be, for example African Swine Fever. The calibrated Grunow & Finke and Agricultural Index epidemiological assessment tools were applied to selected biological events that occurred in Europe after the Russian invasion on Ukraine. Other means of possible influence of foreign intelligence on European agricultural (mainly animal) production (i.e. by disinformation in social media or engagements of so-called “useful idiots”) is alsodiscussed.