Malaria smear positivity among Kenyan children peaks at intermediate temperatures as predicted by ecological models

Background Ambient temperature is an important determinant of malaria transmission and suitability, affecting the life-cycle of the Plasmodium parasite and Anopheles vector. Early models predicted a thermal malaria transmission optimum of 31 °C, later revised to 25 °C using experimental data from mosquito and parasite biology. However, the link between ambient temperature and human malaria incidence remains poorly resolved. Methods To evaluate the relationship between ambient temperature and malaria risk, 5833 febrile children (