Assessing future effects on lake ecosystem resilience using Data Analysis and Dynamic Modelling

Extreme weather events can have short-term and long-term effects on lake thermal structure, nutrient dynamics, and community composition. Moreover, changes in lake variables induced by global climate change may influence the response and recovery of lake ecosystems to extreme weather events. In this dissertation, several processes and drivers involving the effect of extreme weather events on lake ecology were explored, and tools and validation data were provided to increase the reliability of process-based lake modelling of extreme events. Using a coupled physical-biogeochemical model, complex interactions between storm intensity, thermal structure, and nutrient availability were shown to affect phytoplankton concentration. Moderate wind speeds had increasing effects on phytoplankton compared to high wind speeds, but a sufficiently deep mixed layer reduced the response to wind strongly. This thesis furthers our understanding of the processes involved in extreme events acting on lakes, which is especially relevant in these times of increasing environmental pressures and changing extreme weather patterns.