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A Mathematical Modeling Study: Assessing Impact of Mismatch Between Influenza Vaccine Strains and Circulating Strains in Hajj
- Source :
- Bulletin of Mathematical Biology
- Publication Year :
- 2021
- Publisher :
- Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2021.
-
Abstract
- The influenza virus causes severe respiratory illnesses and deaths worldwide every year. It spreads quickly in an overcrowded area like the annual Hajj pilgrimage in Saudi Arabia. Vaccination is the primary strategy for protection against influenza. Due to the occurrence of antigenic shift and drift of the influenza virus, a mismatch between vaccine strains and circulating strains of influenza may occur. The objective of this study is to assess the impact of mismatch between vaccine strains and circulating strains during Hajj, which brings together individuals from all over the globe. To this end, we develop deterministic mathematical models of influenza with different populations and strains from the northern and southern hemispheres. Our results show that the existence and duration of an influenza outbreak during Hajj depend on vaccine efficacy. In this concern, we discuss four scenarios: vaccine strains for both groups match/mismatch circulating strains, and vaccine strains match their target strains and mismatch the other strains. Further, there is a scenario where a novel pandemic strain arises. Our results show that as long as the influenza vaccines match their target strains, there will be no outbreak of strain H1N1 and only a small outbreak of strain H3N2. Mismatching for non-target strains causes about 10,000 new H3N2 cases, and mismatching for both strains causes about 2,000 more new H1N1 cases and 6,000 additional H3N2 cases during Hajj. Complete mismatch in a pandemic scenario may infect over 342,000 additional pilgrims (13.75%) and cause more cases in their home countries.
- Subjects :
- 0301 basic medicine
Influenza vaccine
General Mathematics
Immunology
Saudi Arabia
Biology
Islam
Models, Biological
General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology
Virus
03 medical and health sciences
Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype
0302 clinical medicine
Influenza, Human
Pandemic
Humans
General Environmental Science
Pharmacology
Influenza A Virus, H3N2 Subtype
General Neuroscience
virus diseases
Antigenic shift
Outbreak
Vaccine efficacy
Virology
Vaccination
030104 developmental biology
Computational Theory and Mathematics
Influenza Vaccines
030220 oncology & carcinogenesis
Original Article
Hajj
General Agricultural and Biological Sciences
Subjects
Details
- ISSN :
- 15229602 and 00928240
- Volume :
- 83
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Bulletin of Mathematical Biology
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....36efec8cc057f2dcaa89f82485c412da
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1007/s11538-020-00836-6