Fine spatial scale modelling of Trentino past forest landscape and future change scenarios to study ecosystem services through the years

Over recent decades, forest land cover is dramatically changing in European mountains and in the Alps in particular. Since the 1950s the progressive urbanization of the valleys and the abandonment of mountain and rural dwellers has intensified. More than 60% of the Trentino land, is covered by forest and mainly by high forest. This human migration have brought to a progressive shrinking of meadows and pastures due to the natural forest expansion causing a dramatic change in the landscape, the consequences of which affect biodiversity, social and cultural dynamics and landscape perception as well as ecosystem services. The objective of this research focused on the application and experimentation of advanced GIS and modeling techniques to compare aerial imagery, historical maps and data and remote sensed images to understand the past landscape changes and their dynamics in Trentino and to build future scenarios based on long-term set ofobservations. The research produced a fine scale dataset representing past forest landscape for the Trentino territory. The analysis of these output data revealed a progressive afforestation process which interested homogeneously all the Trentino territory. A future forest landscape scenarios at a detailed scale (10 m) was as well produced, to simulate the future of the forest in a protected area of Trentino, to outline if the afforestation process will continue. Along with these main output of the research, new tools for image processing and evaluation of forest changes were developed.