Ensemble learning for predicting ex vivo human placental barrier permeability

Background The placental barrier protects the fetus from exposure to some toxicants and is vital for drug development and risk assessment of environmental chemicals. However, in vivo experiments for assessing the placental barrier permeability of chemicals is not ethically acceptable. Although ex vivo placental perfusion methods provide good alternatives for the assessment of placental barrier permeability, the application to a large number of test chemicals could be time- and resource-consuming. Computational prediction models for ex vivo placental barrier permeability are therefore desirable. Methods A total of 87 chemicals and corresponding 1444 physicochemical properties were divided into training and test datasets. Three types of algorithms including linear regression, random forest, and ensemble models were applied to develop prediction models for ex vivo placental barrier permeability. Results Among the tested models, the ensemble model integrating the previous two methods performed best for predicting ex vivo human placental barrier permeability with correlation coefficients of 0.887 and 0.825 when considering the applicability domain. An additional test on seven newly curated chemicals from the literature showed a good correlation coefficient of 0.879 which was further improved to 0.921 by considering the variation of experiments. Conclusion In this study, the first valid predicting model for ex vivo human placental barrier permeability was developed following the OECD guideline. The model is expected to be useful for assessing the human placental barrier permeability and can be integrated with developmental toxicity prediction models for investigating the toxic effects of chemicals on the fetus.