Estimation of Transmission Probabilities in Families Ascertained through a Proband with Variable Age-at-Onset Disease: Application to the HLA A, B and DR Loci in Finnish Families with Type 1 Diabetes

An open problem of some interest in the study of HLA has been the possible existence of transmission distortion in the human HLA complex. In this paper, transmission probabilities are estimated and tested using data on HLA A, B and DR loci genotypes of parents and offspring ascertained from the entire population of Finland (Childhood Diabetes in Finland Study) through one or more offspring diagnosed with insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (IDDM) during the recruitment period from September 1986 to July 1989. First, we show how to get unbiased estimates of transmission probabilities from the family data collected in the disease registry of incident cases. This is accomplished by assuming that transmission of HLA genes to children in the general population is conditionally independent given the parents’ genotypes, and the birth dates of all offspring. Based on the sampling (ascertainment) process in the study on Childhood Diabetes in Finland, younger siblings of the index child (the oldest proband) are independent of the ascertainment and therefore give rise to unbiased inference regarding allele transmission. The hypothesis of Mendelian transmission of alleles at each locus was tested using the standard χ2 test. Goodness-of-fit of the Mendelian inheritance model to the individual locus data is calculated by maximizing the likelihood function over allele transmission intensities at each locus. The existence of a strong transmission distortion is not supported by this study at the loci considered.