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Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in the Songhua River Basin
- Source :
- Water, Vol 8, Iss 10, p 420 (2016), Water; Volume 8; Issue 10; Pages: 420
- Publication Year :
- 2016
- Publisher :
- MDPI AG, 2016.
-
Abstract
- The Songhua River Basin (SRB) in Northeast China is one of the areas most sensitive to global climate change because of its high-latitude location. In this study, we conducted a modeling assessment on the potential change of water resources in this region for the coming three decades using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). First, we calibrated and validated the model with historical streamflow records in this basin. Then, we applied the calibrated model for the period from 2020 to 2049 with the projected and downscaled climatic data under two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The study results show: (1) The SWAT model performed very well for both the calibration and validation periods in the SRB; (2) The projected temperatures showed a steady, significant increase across the SRB under both scenarios, especially in two sub-basins, the Nenjiang River Basin (NRB) and the Lower SRB (LSRB). With regard to precipitation, both scenarios showed a decreasing trend in the NRB and LSRB but an increasing trend in the Upper Songhua River Basin (USRB); and (3), generally, the hydrologic modeling suggested a decreasing trend of streamflow for 2020–2049. Compared to baseline conditions (1980–2009), the streamflow in the NRB and LSRB would decrease by 20.3%–37.8%, while streamflow in the USRB would experience an increase of 9.68%–17.7%. These findings provide relevant insights into future surface water resources, and such information can be helpful for resource managers and policymakers to develop effective eco-environment management plans and strategies in the face of climate change.
- Subjects :
- streamflow modeling
lcsh:Hydraulic engineering
Soil and Water Assessment Tool
Hydrological modelling
0208 environmental biotechnology
Geography, Planning and Development
Drainage basin
Climate change
02 engineering and technology
Aquatic Science
water resources
Biochemistry
lcsh:Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes
lcsh:TC1-978
Streamflow
Songhua River
SWAT
SWAT model
Water Science and Technology
Hydrology
geography
lcsh:TD201-500
geography.geographical_feature_category
Global warming
Nenjiang River
020801 environmental engineering
Water resources
climate change
climatic scenarios
Second Songhua River
Environmental science
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 20734441
- Volume :
- 8
- Issue :
- 10
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Water
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....3ea79c89a26537e58a00f7ccd1ebceba