Importance of glomerular filtration rate change as surrogate endpoint for the future incidence of end-stage renal disease in general Japanese population: community-based cohort study

Background Because of the necessity for extended period and large costs until the event occurs, surrogate endpoints are indispensable for implementation of clinical studies to improve chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients’ prognosis. Methods Subjects with serum creatinine level for a baseline period over 1–3 years were enrolled (n = 69,238) in this community-based prospective cohort study in Okinawa, Japan, and followed up for 15 years. The endpoint was end-stage renal disease (ESRD). The percent of estimated glomerular filtration rate (%eGFR) change was calculated on the basis of the baseline period. Results Subjects had a mean ± SD age, 55.59 ± 14.69 years; eGFR, 80.15 ± 21.15 ml/min/1.73 m2. Among the subjects recruited, 15.81% had a low eGFR (