The total number and mass of SARS-CoV-2 virions

Significance Knowing the absolute numbers of virions in an infection promotes better understanding of disease dynamics and response of the immune system. Here we use current knowledge on the concentrations of virions in infected individuals to estimate the total number and mass of SARS-CoV-2 virions in an infected person. Although each infected person carries an estimated 1 billion to 100 billion virions during peak infection, their total mass is no more than 0.1 mg. This curiously implies that all SARS-CoV-2 virions currently in all human hosts have a mass of between 100 g and 10 kg. Combining the known mutation rate and our estimate of the number of infectious virions, we quantify the formation rate of genetic variants.
Quantitatively describing the time course of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection within an infected individual is important for understanding the current global pandemic and possible ways to combat it. Here we integrate the best current knowledge about the typical viral load of SARS-CoV-2 in bodily fluids and host tissues to estimate the total number and mass of SARS-CoV-2 virions in an infected person. We estimate that each infected person carries 109 to 1011 virions during peak infection, with a total mass in the range of 1 μg to 100 μg, which curiously implies that all SARS-CoV-2 virions currently circulating within human hosts have a collective mass of only 0.1 kg to 10 kg. We combine our estimates with the available literature on host immune response and viral mutation rates to demonstrate how antibodies markedly outnumber the spike proteins, and the genetic diversity of virions in an infected host covers all possible single nucleotide substitutions.