Daily Walking and the Risk of Knee Replacement Over 5 Years Among Adults With Advanced Knee Osteoarthritis in the United States

Objective To examine the association of the volume and intensity of daily walking at baseline with the risk of knee replacement (KR) over 5 years in adults with advanced structural knee osteoarthritis. Design Prospective, longitudinal, and multicenter observational study. Setting Osteoarthritis Initiative study with follow-up from 2008-2015. Participants Community-dwelling adults with or at risk of knee osteoarthritis were recruited from 4 sites in the United States (N=516; mean age, 67.7±8.6y; body mass index, 29.3±4.7 kg/m2; 52% female). We included participants with advanced structural disease, without KR and had valid daily walking data (quantified using Actigraph GT1M), at baseline. Interventions Not applicable. Main outcomes KR. Walking volume was measured as steps/day and intensity as minutes/day spent not walking (0 steps/min) and walking at very light (1-49 steps/min), light (50-100 steps/min), or moderate (>100 steps/min) intensities. To examine the relationship of walking volume and intensity with the risk of KR, we calculated hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) adjusting for covariates. Results Of 516 adults with advanced structural disease, 88 received a KR over 5 years (17%). Walking an additional 1000 steps/d was not associated with the risk of KR (adjusted HR=0.95; 95% CI, 0.84-1.04). Statistically, replacing 10 min/d of very light and light walking with 10 min/d of moderate walking reduced the risk of KR incidence by 35% and 37%, respectively (adjusted HR=0.65, 95% CI, 0.45-0.94, for very light and adjusted HR=0.63; 95% CI, 0.40-1.00, for light). Conclusions Daily walking volume and intensity did not increase KR risk over 5 years and may be protective in some cases in adults with advanced structural knee osteoarthritis.