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The NLS-Based Nonlinear Grey Multivariate Model for Forecasting Pollutant Emissions in China
- Source :
- International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health; Volume 15; Issue 3; Pages: 471, International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, Vol 15, Iss 3, p 471 (2018), International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
- Publication Year :
- 2018
- Publisher :
- Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute, 2018.
-
Abstract
- The relationship between pollutant discharge and economic growth has been a major research focus in environmental economics. To accurately estimate the nonlinear change law of China’s pollutant discharge with economic growth, this study establishes a transformed nonlinear grey multivariable (TNGM (1, N)) model based on the nonlinear least square (NLS) method. The Gauss–Seidel iterative algorithm was used to solve the parameters of the TNGM (1, N) model based on the NLS basic principle. This algorithm improves the precision of the model by continuous iteration and constantly approximating the optimal regression coefficient of the nonlinear model. In our empirical analysis, the traditional grey multivariate model GM (1, N) and the NLS-based TNGM (1, N) models were respectively adopted to forecast and analyze the relationship among wastewater discharge per capita (WDPC), and per capita emissions of SO2 and dust, alongside GDP per capita in China during the period 1996–2015. Results indicated that the NLS algorithm is able to effectively help the grey multivariable model identify the nonlinear relationship between pollutant discharge and economic growth. The results show that the NLS-based TNGM (1, N) model presents greater precision when forecasting WDPC, SO2 emissions and dust emissions per capita, compared to the traditional GM (1, N) model; WDPC indicates a growing tendency aligned with the growth of GDP, while the per capita emissions of SO2 and dust reduce accordingly.
- Subjects :
- China
Multivariate statistics
Iterative method
Pollutant emissions
020209 energy
Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis
pollutant discharge
lcsh:Medicine
02 engineering and technology
Wastewater
Article
GM (1, N) model
Statistics
Linear regression
0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering
Per capita
Sulfur Dioxide
Least-Squares Analysis
Mathematics
Pollutant
Multivariable calculus
lcsh:R
Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
Dust
economic growth
NLS method
Nonlinear system
TNGM (1, N) model
Nonlinear Dynamics
Environmental Pollutants
Economic Development
Forecasting
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 16604601
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health; Volume 15; Issue 3; Pages: 471
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....483e3e63ee417c4c3eb054cbe53ac31c
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph15030471