Intervention times series analysis of pertussis vaccination in England and Wales

We use the ARIMA model with intervention in order to analyse the epidemiological situation of whooping-cough in England and Wales for the period of 1940–1990. The ARIMA modelling of this illness contains intervention variables, such as the introduction of widespread vaccination in 1957 and the fall in the level of vaccination down to 30% in 1978. The results of this analysis confirm the role of the intervention variables on the evolution of the morbidity due to whooping-cough, by quantifying their impact on the level of the morbidity, as well as the delay needed before they have an influence on the increase of recorded cases of whooping-cough.