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A consistent set of infinite-order probabilities

Authors :
David Atkinson
Jeanne Peijnenburg
Faculty of Philosophy
Theoretical Philosophy
High-Energy Frontier
Source :
International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, 54(9), 1351-1360. ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC
Publication Year :
2013
Publisher :
Elsevier BV, 2013.

Abstract

Some philosophers have claimed that it is meaningless or paradoxical to consider the probability of a probability. Others have however argued that second-order probabilities do not pose any particular problem. We side with the latter group. On condition that the relevant distinctions are taken into account, second-order probabilities can be shown to be perfectly consistent.May the same be said of an infinite hierarchy of higher-order probabilities? Is it consistent to speak of a probability of a probability, and of a probability of a probability of a probability, and so on, ad infinitum? We argue that it is, for it can be shown that there exists an infinite system of probabilities that has a model. In particular, we define a regress of higher-order probabilities that leads to a convergent series which determines an infinite-order probability value. We demonstrate the consistency of the regress by constructing a model based on coin-making machines. We show that an infinite hierarchy of probabilities of probabilities is consistent.The proof consists in a model involving coin-making machines.Weak conditions are given for the convergence of the infinite system.

Details

ISSN :
0888613X
Volume :
54
Database :
OpenAIRE
Journal :
International Journal of Approximate Reasoning
Accession number :
edsair.doi.dedup.....4a11df6cd5283f72e3006b15bc9517ee