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A consistent set of infinite-order probabilities
- Source :
- International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, 54(9), 1351-1360. ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC
- Publication Year :
- 2013
- Publisher :
- Elsevier BV, 2013.
-
Abstract
- Some philosophers have claimed that it is meaningless or paradoxical to consider the probability of a probability. Others have however argued that second-order probabilities do not pose any particular problem. We side with the latter group. On condition that the relevant distinctions are taken into account, second-order probabilities can be shown to be perfectly consistent.May the same be said of an infinite hierarchy of higher-order probabilities? Is it consistent to speak of a probability of a probability, and of a probability of a probability of a probability, and so on, ad infinitum? We argue that it is, for it can be shown that there exists an infinite system of probabilities that has a model. In particular, we define a regress of higher-order probabilities that leads to a convergent series which determines an infinite-order probability value. We demonstrate the consistency of the regress by constructing a model based on coin-making machines. We show that an infinite hierarchy of probabilities of probabilities is consistent.The proof consists in a model involving coin-making machines.Weak conditions are given for the convergence of the infinite system.
- Subjects :
- Higher-order probability
Chain rule (probability)
Infinite regress
Applied Mathematics
Law of total probability
Conditional probability
Symmetric probability distribution
Tree diagram
Theoretical Computer Science
Combinatorics
Equiprobability
Regular conditional probability
Artificial Intelligence
Probability distribution
Applied mathematics
Software
Model
Mathematics
Subjects
Details
- ISSN :
- 0888613X
- Volume :
- 54
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- International Journal of Approximate Reasoning
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....4a11df6cd5283f72e3006b15bc9517ee