Back to Search
Start Over
SMILE: a predictive model for scoring the severity of relapses in multIple sclerosis
- Source :
- Multiple Sclerosis Journal, Multiple Sclerosis Journal, SAGE Publications, 2019, 25, pp.198-198, Journal of Neurology, Journal of Neurology, Springer Verlag, 2021, 268 (2), pp.669-679. ⟨10.1007/s00415-020-10154-5⟩, Journal of Neurology, 2021, 268 (2), pp.669-679. ⟨10.1007/s00415-020-10154-5⟩
- Publication Year :
- 2019
- Publisher :
- HAL CCSD, 2019.
-
Abstract
- International audience; BACKGROUND: In relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS), relapse severity and residual disability are difficult to predict. Nevertheless, this information is crucial both for guiding relapse treatment strategies and for informing patients. OBJECTIVE: We, therefore, developed and validated a clinical-based model for predicting the risk of residual disability at 6 months post-relapse in MS. METHODS: We used the data of 186 patients with RRMS collected during the COPOUSEP multicentre trial. The outcome was an increase of ≥ 1 EDSS point 6 months post-relapse treatment. We used logistic regression with LASSO penalization to construct the model, and bootstrap cross-validation to internally validate it. The model was externally validated with an independent retrospective French single-centre cohort of 175 patients. RESULTS: The predictive factors contained in the model were age > 40 years, shorter disease duration, EDSS increase ≥ 1.5 points at time of relapse, EDSS = 0 before relapse, proprioceptive ataxia, and absence of subjective sensory disorders. Discriminative accuracy was acceptable in both the internal (AUC 0.82, 95% CI [0.73, 0.91]) and external (AUC 0.71, 95% CI [0.62, 0.80]) validations. CONCLUSION: The predictive model we developed should prove useful for adapting therapeutic strategy of relapse and follow-up to individual patients.
- Subjects :
- Adult
medicine.medical_specialty
Multiple Sclerosis
Ataxia
Neurology
[SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio]
[SDV.CAN]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Cancer
Logistic regression
Disability Evaluation
03 medical and health sciences
Multiple Sclerosis, Relapsing-Remitting
0302 clinical medicine
Lasso (statistics)
Recurrence
Internal medicine
Relapse phenotype
Humans
Medicine
030212 general & internal medicine
ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS
Retrospective Studies
Therapeutic strategy
Neuroradiology
business.industry
Multiple sclerosis
medicine.disease
3. Good health
Predictive model
Relapse recovery
Cohort
[SDV.SPEE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologie
EDSS
Neurology (clinical)
medicine.symptom
business
030217 neurology & neurosurgery
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 13524585, 14770970, 03405354, and 14321459
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Multiple Sclerosis Journal, Multiple Sclerosis Journal, SAGE Publications, 2019, 25, pp.198-198, Journal of Neurology, Journal of Neurology, Springer Verlag, 2021, 268 (2), pp.669-679. ⟨10.1007/s00415-020-10154-5⟩, Journal of Neurology, 2021, 268 (2), pp.669-679. ⟨10.1007/s00415-020-10154-5⟩
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....4d799010fbb5819fbf68acb026df9706