Development and prospective validation of a spatial dose pattern based model predicting acute pulmonary toxicity in patients treated with volumetric arc-therapy for locally advanced lung cancer

(Chemo)-radiotherapy is the standard treatment for patients with locally advanced lung cancer (LALC) not accessible to surgery. Despite strict application of dose constraints, acute toxicities such as acute pulmonary toxicity (APT) remain frequent, and may impact treatment's compliance and patients' quality of life. Previously, on a population treated with intensity-modulated photon therapy or passive scattering proton therapy, spatial dose patterns associated with APT were identified in the lower lungs, especially in the posterior right lung. In the present study, we aim to define these spatial dose patterns on a retrospective cohort treated by volumetric-arctherapy (VMAT) and to validate our findings prospectively.For the training cohort, we retrospectively included all patients treated in our institution by VMAT for a LALC between 2015 and 2018. APT was scored according to the CTCAE v4.0 scale. All dose maps were registered to a thorax phantom using a segmentation-based elastic registration. Voxel-based analysis of local dose differences was performed with a non-parametric permutation test accounting for n = 10.000 permutations, producing a 3-dimensional significance maps on which clusters of voxels that exhibited significant dose differences (p 0.05) between the two toxicity groups (APT ≥ grade 2 vs APT grade 2) were identified. A prediction model (Pmap-Model) was then built using a neural network approach and then applied to an observational prospective cohort for validation. The model was evaluated using the Area under the curve (AUC) and the balanced accuracy (Bacc: mean of the sensitivity and specificity).165 and 42 patients were included in the training and validation cohorts, with respective APT rates of 22.4% and 19.1%. In the training cohort, a cluster of voxels (Pmap-region) was identified in the posterior right lung. In the training cohort, the Pmap-Model combining 11 features among which the mean dose to the Pmap-region resulted in an AUC of 0.99 and a Bacc of 99.2 using an 8% probability threshold. Using the same voxel cluster on the validation cohort, the Pmap-model resulted in an AUC of 0.81 and a Bacc of 82.0.Our APT-prediction model was successfully validated in a prospective cohort treated by VMAT. Regional radiosensitivity should be considered in usual lung dose constraints, opening the possibility of easily implementable adaptive dosimetry planning.