Identifying trends and associated uncertainties in potential rice production under climate change in Mediterranean areas

The future of global rice productions in top producing countries is undermined by the impact of climate change threatening food security in the near future. In those European Mediterranean areas where rice is cultivated, this peculiar cropping system plays a crucial role in terms of sociocultural and ecological issues, and the climate change impact is still scarcely investigated. In this study, we explored the future trends of potential rice yields in the region considering the multiple sources of uncertainty associated with climate and yield predictions. Two rice crop models (STICS and WARM) were calibrated using 20 field experiments carried out in two main European rice producing areas − i.e., the Italian Lomellina and the French Camargue. These models were then applied under a range of climate change scenarios in 2030 and 2070 time frames, considering projections from the combination of four General Circulation Models and two extreme Representative CO2 Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.6 and 8.5). We compared the simulated yield levels with no adaptation, and designed adaptation strategies based on the anticipation of sowing date and the adoption of varieties with longer crop cycle. Our results showed that with no adaptation yields would decrease on average by 8% in 2030 and 12% in 2070 in Camargue and Lomellina. Future simulated yields in the two areas were lower than in the baseline in 67% (Camargue) and 84% (Lomellina) of the cases. The implementation of both adaptation strategies proved to be effective in reversing the situation, leading to an average yield increase of 28% and 25% in 2030 and 2070, respectively. The associated probability of lower yields than in current conditions was 24% in the two sites. Despite the uncertainty in predictions, mainly related to site, GCM and RCP, our findings indicate that the European rice sector has the potential to enhance current production levels in a changing climate, if longer cycle varieties will be grown in Mediterranean rice areas.