Echocardiographic prediction of clinical outcome in medically treated patients with aortic stenosis

Background The onset of symptoms is crucial in the natural history of severe aortic stenosis. In contrast, the impact of the degree of valve obstruction and left ventricular dysfunction on clinical outcome in terms of progression of symptoms and mortality is undefined. Methods and Results Between April 1989 and June 1996, 108 patients (75% male, aged 68.7 ± 10.3 years) with pure and isolated aortic stenosis of at least moderate degree had a complete Doppler echocardiography. Left ventricular end-diastolic and end-systolic diameters, thickness of ventricular septum, mass and ejection fraction, and maximal instantaneous aortic gradient were measured. Patients were followed up through March 1999. Sixty-five patients who underwent aortic valve replacement were censored at the time of surgery. The end point was considered to be death or symptomatic progression (onset of new symptoms or worsening of symptoms). At the time of diagnosis 64 (59%) were in New York Heart Association (NYHA) class I-II and 44 (41%) in NYHA class III-IV. After a mean follow-up of 46 ± 21 months 6 patients died and 45 had worsening of symptoms. Univariate predictors of clinical outcome (death and worsening of symptoms) included left ventricular end-diastolic diameter (hazard ratio 1.03, P =.08), left ventricular end-systolic diameter (HR 1.04, P =.012), and left ventricular septum thickness (HR 1.14, P =.009) but not the degree of aortic obstruction. Multivariate predictors of clinical outcome were left ventricular septum thickness ( P =.016) and left ventricular end-systolic diameter ( P =.008). Conclusion In patients with various degrees of aortic stenosis the rate of clinical outcome is predicted by left ventricular function and septum thickness. Therefore both the left ventricular and aortic valve gradients should be taken into account when choosing the timing of intervention. (Am Heart J 2000;140:766-71.)