Clinical value of the HATCH score for predicting adverse outcomes in patients with heart failure

The HATCH score is employed as a risk assessment tool for atrial fibrillation (AF) development. However, the impact of the HATCH score on the long-term adverse outcomes in patients with acute heart failure (AHF) remains unknown. We investigated the clinical value of the HATCH score in patients with AHF. From a multicenter AHF registry, we retrospectively evaluated 1543 consecutive patients who required hospitalization owing to AHF (median age, 78 [69-85] years; 42.3% women) from January 2012 to December 2019. These patients were divided into five risk groups based on their HATCH score at admission (scores 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4-7). The correlation between the HATCH score and the composite outcome, including all-cause mortality and re-hospitalization due to HF, was analyzed using Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional-hazard analyses. The median HATCH score was 2 [1-3], and the median age was 78 years (69-85 years). During the follow-up period (median, 16.8 months), the composite endpoint occurred in 691 patients (44.8%), including 416 (27%) patients who died (with 65 [4.2%] in-hospitalization deaths) and 455 (29.5%) patients requiring re-hospitalizations due to HF. The Kaplan-Meier analysis showed a significant increase in the composite endpoint with an increasing HATCH score (log-rank, p 0.001). The multivariate Cox regression model revealed that the HATCH score was an independent predictor of the composite endpoint (hazard ratio [HR] 1.181; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.111-1.255; p 0.001) with all-cause mortality (HR 1.153, 95% CI 1.065-1.249; p 0.001) and re-hospitalizations due to HF (HR 1.21; 95% CI 1.124-1.303; p 0.001) in patients with AHF, regardless of the presence or absence of AF, ejection fraction, and etiology. The HATCH score is an independent predictor of adverse outcomes in patients with AHF.