AIDS scenarios for The Netherlands; the economic impact on hospitals

Objective: To assess the economic impact of HIV/AIDS on the health care system in The Netherlands. Data and methods: Two types of data are used: (i) routine surveillance data on AIDS incidence and (ii) information on hospital resource utilisation and corresponding monetary costs. Progression of disease is modelled using a multi-stage model, with stages corresponding to clinical classifications and to different phases of health care need. Economic impact is analysed for all stages in three scenarios: the reference and two alternative scenarios. Results: In the year 2000 hospital bed need would reach 220 beds if yearly new HIV infections in the 1990s remain at the level estimated for the end of the 1980s, and if the intensity of hospital care remains constant. A minimum need of 125 beds is projected if no new HIV infections occur in the 1990s. Hospital costs in 1993 are estimated to amount to 33.8 million ECUs. Scenarios indicate a range of 26.7–50.7 million ECUs for the year 2000 (price level: 1993). The proportion of the costs of hospital inpatient care and cure in total hospital costs increases, whereas the proportion for outpatient services decreases. Conclusions: Projected hospital bed need of 125–220 for HIV/AIDS in the year 2000 is limited compared to the projections for coronary heart disease and stroke, but approaches that for lung cancer, pneumonia and diabetes. We estimate hospital costs to have been 85% of total health care costs for HIV/AIDS in 1993. In 1993, the estimated proportions in hospital costs are 41% for inpatient care, 20% for inpatient cure and 39% for outpatient facilities. Our scenarios indicate a decreasing share of outpatient costs — possibly to 30% of total hospital costs for HIV/AIDS in 2000 — illustrating the growing relative importance of the AIDS stage for the hospital costs. We project hospital costs for HIV/AIDS in 2000 to reach up to 0.53% of projected hospital costs for all diseases. A present value of 38 million ECUs (23%) of hospital costs projected in the reference scenario might be avoidable, during the period 1994–2000. However, with unchanged treatment patterns a present value of 127 million ECUs for hospital costs during the same period is projected to represent unavoidable costs (discount rate: 5%). In The Netherlands, data needs in the field of economic impact assessment of HIV/AIDS especially refer to registrations of non-hospital outpatient resource utilisation and costs.