Back to Search
Start Over
Systematic review and meta-analysis of mortality risk prediction models in adult cardiac surgery
- Source :
- Interactive Cardiovascular and Thoracic Surgery, Sinha, S, Dimagli, A, Dixon, L, Gaudino, M, Caputo, M, Vohra, H A, Angelini, G & Benedetto, U 2021, ' Systematic review and meta-analysis of mortality risk prediction models in adult cardiac surgery ', Interactive Cardiovascular and Thoracic Surgery, vol. 33, no. 5, pp. 673-686 . https://doi.org/10.1093/icvts/ivab151
- Publication Year :
- 2020
-
Abstract
- OBJECTIVES The most used mortality risk prediction models in cardiac surgery are the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (ES) and Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) score. There is no agreement on which score should be considered more accurate nor which score should be utilized in each population subgroup. We sought to provide a thorough quantitative assessment of these 2 models. METHODS We performed a systematic literature review and captured information on discrimination, as quantified by the area under the receiver operator curve (AUC), and calibration, as quantified by the ratio of observed-to-expected mortality (O:E). We performed random effects meta-analysis of the performance of the individual models as well as pairwise comparisons and subgroup analysis by procedure type, time and continent. RESULTS The ES2 {AUC 0.783 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.765–0.800]; O:E 1.102 (95% CI 0.943–1.289)} and STS [AUC 0.757 (95% CI 0.727–0.785); O:E 1.111 (95% CI 0.853–1.447)] showed good overall discrimination and calibration. There was no significant difference in the discrimination of the 2 models (difference in AUC −0.016; 95% CI −0.034 to −0.002; P = 0.09). However, the calibration of ES2 showed significant geographical variations (P<br />Cardiac surgery carries an inherent risk of perioperative mortality and morbidity.
- Subjects :
- Pulmonary and Respiratory Medicine
Adult
medicine.medical_specialty
Society of Thoracic Surgeons
Calibration (statistics)
Subgroup analysis
Review
030204 cardiovascular system & hematology
Risk Assessment
03 medical and health sciences
0302 clinical medicine
Risk Factors
Internal medicine
Medicine
Humans
Cardiac Surgical Procedures
Mortality
Surgeons
Adult Cardiac
Receiver operating characteristic
business.industry
AcademicSubjects/MED00920
Eacts/173
Thoracic Surgery
European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation
Cardiac surgery
Random effects model
Confidence interval
Systematic review
030228 respiratory system
Meta-analysis
Surgery
Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine
business
Prediction
Eacts/123
Subjects
Details
- ISSN :
- 15699285 and 42020220
- Volume :
- 33
- Issue :
- 5
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Interactive cardiovascular and thoracic surgery
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....5450ab29351e360fe9ce9ac4585836ef
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1093/icvts/ivab151