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An advanced empirical model for quantifying the impact of heat and climate change on human physical work capacity
- Source :
- Foster, J, Smallcombe, J W, Hodder, S, Jay, O, Flouris, A D, Nybo, L & Havenith, G 2021, ' An advanced empirical model for quantifying the impact of heat and climate change on human physical work capacity ', International Journal of Biometeorology, vol. 65, no. 7, pp. 1215-1229 . https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-021-02105-0, International Journal of Biometeorology
- Publication Year :
- 2021
-
Abstract
- Occupational heat stress directly hampers physical work capacity (PWC), with large economic consequences for industries and regions vulnerable to global warming. Accurately quantifying PWC is essential for forecasting impacts of different climate change scenarios, but the current state of knowledge is limited, leading to potential underestimations in mild heat, and overestimations in extreme heat. We therefore developed advanced empirical equations for PWC based on 338 work sessions in climatic chambers (low air movement, no solar radiation) spanning mild to extreme heat stress. Equations for PWC are available based on air temperature and humidity, for a suite of heat stress assessment metrics, and mean skin temperature. Our models are highly sensitive to mild heat and to our knowledge are the first to include empirical data across the full range of warm and hot environments possible with future climate change across the world. Using wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) as an example, we noted 10% reductions in PWC at mild heat stress (WBGT = 18°C) and reductions of 78% in the most extreme conditions (WBGT = 40°C). Of the different heat stress indices available, the heat index was the best predictor of group level PWC (R2= 0.96) but can only be applied in shaded conditions. The skin temperature, but not internal/core temperature, was a strong predictor of PWC (R2= 0.88), thermal sensation (R2= 0.84), and thermal comfort (R2= 0.73). The models presented apply to occupational workloads and can be used in climate projection models to predict economic and social consequences of climate change.
- Subjects :
- Atmospheric Science
Hot Temperature
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
Climate Change
Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis
Wet-bulb globe temperature
Climate change
Heat Stress Disorders
01 natural sciences
03 medical and health sciences
0302 clinical medicine
Occupational Exposure
Humans
0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Original Paper
Heat index
Ecology
Global warming
Thermal comfort
Humidity
030229 sport sciences
13. Climate action
Climatology
Environmental science
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Foster, J, Smallcombe, J W, Hodder, S, Jay, O, Flouris, A D, Nybo, L & Havenith, G 2021, ' An advanced empirical model for quantifying the impact of heat and climate change on human physical work capacity ', International Journal of Biometeorology, vol. 65, no. 7, pp. 1215-1229 . https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-021-02105-0, International Journal of Biometeorology
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....573f77870acf79058881caa90af11bee