Continued Analysis on Multiscale Aspects of Tropical Cyclone Formation, Structure Change and Predictability in the Western North Pacific Region as Part of the TCS08 DRI

The overarching objectives of this research project are to obtain an improved understanding of the formation, intensification, predictability and structure change of tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific region. These new insights will ultimately improve forecast guidance for U.S. Naval operations in this region. During this past year the PI and his research group have developed and further substantiated a new model for the phenomenon of secondary eyewall formation (SEF), a process that occurs frequently in mature tropical cyclones and is a continued forecast priority for storms threatening Naval and DOD operations in the Western North Pacific sector. The new model is based on a newly articulated paradigm of tropical cyclone intensification (discussed further below) that the PI has developed in collaboration with his distinguished international colleague, Professor Roger Smith from the University of Munich. Because of space constraints, only pertinent background information is provided to explain the basis for the new approach followed by a summary of some of the key new findings on the SEF problem. Other research supported by this grant is discussed in preceding annual reports and via the PI s website listed above.