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Avalanche risk evaluation and protective dam optimal design using extreme value statistics
- Source :
- Journal of Glaciology, Artículos CONICYT, CONICYT Chile, instacron:CONICYT, Journal of Glaciology, International Glaciological Society, 2016, 62 (234), pp.725-749. ⟨10.1017/jog.2016.64⟩
- Publication Year :
- 2016
-
Abstract
- In snow avalanche long-term forecasting, existing risk-based methods remain difficult to use in a real engineering context. In this work, we expand a quasi analytical decisional model to obtain simple formulae to quantify risk and to perform the optimal design of an avalanche dam in a quick and efficient way. Specifically, the exponential runout model is replaced by the Generalized Pareto distribution (GPD), which has theoretical justifications that promote its use for modelling the different possible runout tail behaviours. Regarding the defence structure/flow interaction, a simple law based on kinetic energy dissipation is compared with a law based on the volume stored upstream of the dam, whose flexibility allows us to cope with various types of snow. We show how a detailed sensitivity study can be conducted, leading to intervals and bounds for risk estimates and optimal design values. Application to a typical case study from the French Alps, highlights potential operational difficulties and how they can be tackled. For instance, the highest sensitivity to the runout tail type and interaction law is found at abscissas of legal importance for hazard zoning (return periods of 10–1000 a), a crucial result for practical purposes.
- Subjects :
- Hazard (logic)
Optimal design
EVALUATION DU RISQUE
Mathematical optimization
DIMENSIONNEMENT
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
design
0211 other engineering and technologies
DIGUE PARAVALANCHE
Context (language use)
02 engineering and technology
avalanche protection dam
01 natural sciences
symbols.namesake
Generalized Pareto distribution
Statistics
[SPI.GCIV.RISQ]Engineering Sciences [physics]/Civil Engineering/Risques
[SDU.STU.GL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Glaciology
Sensitivity (control systems)
Extreme value theory
0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Earth-Surface Processes
Flexibility (engineering)
021110 strategic, defence & security studies
[SDE.IE]Environmental Sciences/Environmental Engineering
Abscissa
THEORIE DES VALEURS EXTREMES
symbols
avalanches
AVALANCHE
Geology
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 00221430
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Journal of Glaciology, Artículos CONICYT, CONICYT Chile, instacron:CONICYT, Journal of Glaciology, International Glaciological Society, 2016, 62 (234), pp.725-749. ⟨10.1017/jog.2016.64⟩
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....5968de7b92f628afa65fd7eb0ea66bdb
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2016.64⟩