Back to Search
Start Over
A multi-paradigm framework to assess the impacts of climate change on end-use energy demand
- Source :
- PLoS ONE, Vol 12, Iss 11, p e0188033 (2017), PLoS ONE, School of Industrial Engineering Faculty Publications, Energy Publications
- Publication Year :
- 2017
- Publisher :
- Public Library of Science (PLoS), 2017.
-
Abstract
- Projecting the long-term trends in energy demand is an increasingly complex endeavor due to the uncertain emerging changes in factors such as climate and policy. The existing energy-economy paradigms used to characterize the long-term trends in the energy sector do not adequately account for climate variability and change. In this paper, we propose a multi-paradigm framework for estimating the climate sensitivity of end-use energy demand that can easily be integrated with the existing energy-economy models. To illustrate the applicability of our proposed framework, we used the energy demand and climate data in the state of Indiana to train a Bayesian predictive model. We then leveraged the end-use demand trends as well as downscaled future climate scenarios to generate probabilistic estimates of the future end-use demand for space cooling, space heating and water heating, at the individual household and building level, in the residential and commercial sectors. Our results indicated that the residential load is much more sensitive to climate variability and change than the commercial load. Moreover, since the largest fraction of the residential energy demand in Indiana is attributed to heating, future warming scenarios could lead to reduced end-use demand due to lower space heating and water heating needs. In the commercial sector, the overall energy demand is expected to increase under the future warming scenarios. This is because the increased cooling load during hotter summer months will likely outpace the reduced heating load during the more temperate winter months.
- Subjects :
- Energy-Generating Resources
Indiana
Atmospheric Science
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
Cooling load
Conservation of Energy Resources
lcsh:Medicine
Wind
02 engineering and technology
01 natural sciences
7. Clean energy
Geographical locations
Mathematical and Statistical Techniques
11. Sustainability
0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering
lcsh:Science
Statistical Data
Climatology
Multidisciplinary
Environmental resource management
Renewable energy
Air conditioning
Physical Sciences
Seasons
Statistics (Mathematics)
Research Article
Climate Change
Summer
020209 energy
Climate change
Research and Analysis Methods
Heating
Meteorology
Temperate climate
Humans
Air Conditioning
Computer Simulation
Renewable Energy
Statistical Methods
0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Models, Statistical
business.industry
Winter
lcsh:R
Probabilistic logic
Environmental economics
United States
13. Climate action
North America
Earth Sciences
Climate sensitivity
Environmental science
lcsh:Q
People and places
business
Mathematics
Forecasting
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 19326203
- Volume :
- 12
- Issue :
- 11
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- PLoS ONE
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....5a5842e590b070e2532958ec95b40913