Computed tomography enterography predicts surgical-free survival in symptomatic stricturing Crohn’s disease

The study aimed to predict surgical risks for patients with symptomatic stricturing Crohn's disease (CD) using computed tomography enterography (CTE) and to assess the association between CTE findings and pathological changes.Crohn's disease patients with symptomatic stricture(s) were included. Exclusion criteria were concomitant penetrating disease, intra-abdominal abscess, previous bowel resection, or asymptomatic. Patients from January 2016 to December 2019 were identified as the primary cohort and those from January 2020 to June 2020 were identified as the validation cohort. Two independent experienced radiologists evaluated CTE variables including mucosal enhancement, mural stratification, wall enhancement, comb sign, lymphadenopathy, thick non-enhancing wall, bowel wall thickness, luminal diameter, and upstream lumen. Receiver operating characteristic, logistic regression, and nomogram were performed to identify the independent predictors of surgical-free survival. Histopathological scores of surgical specimens were also evaluated.198 patients (primary cohort, 123 with surgery and 75 under non-surgical intervention, and 41 patients (validation cohort) were analyzed. Bowel wall thickness 5.9 mm, luminal stenosis 3.35 mm, and upstream lumen 27.5 mm were predictors of surgical-free survival for symptomatic stricturing CD patients. Logistic analysis showed the three CTE variables were the independent predictors of surgical-free survival (p 0.001). A nomogram was developed with the concordance indexes of 0.905 and 0.892 in the primary and validation cohorts. Histopathological analysis showed bowel wall muscular hyperplasia/hypertrophy significantly correlated with luminal stenosis (r = - 0.655, p = 0.008) and combined CTE variable (r = - 0.683, p = 0.005).CTE is highly predictive of disease course and surgical-free survival for patients with symptomatic stricturing CD, suggesting the important role of CTE in decision-making of treatment.