Pollution haven or porter? The impact of environmental regulation on location choices of pollution-intensive firms in China

Using firm establishment-level data combined with provincial socio-economic characteristic panel data in China for the period of 2011-2015, this study seeks to empirically examine the impact of environmental regulation on location choices of polluting firms. The results of the conditional logit model provide compelling evidence that environmental regulations do affect the location choice of firms in polluting industries. Instead of supporting the pollution haven effect, our results consistently confirm the Porter effect at the country level. This result is robust when taking endogeneity problem into account, adopting various model specifications and estimation strategies, using alternative measurements of environmental regulation and location choices, and subsampling excluding international political events. However, the results also show divergent effect of environmental regulation on location choices for heterogeneous firms. Specifically, polluting firms in eastern region prefer to invest in provinces with stringent environmental policies but those in other regions, especially in northeastern region, choose to locate in provinces with lax environmental regulation. While water-dependent polluting firms with a low level of footlooseness are more likely to enter locations with loose environmental regulation, air pollution-intensive firms tend to locate in provinces with tight environmental legislation. These results have policy implications for transitional China as well as other developing countries with similar experience.