Incidence and predictors of progression of carotid atherosclerosis in a low-income Chinese population—a prospective cohort study

Objective More than 200 million individuals have been diagnosed with carotid atherosclerosis (CAS) in China. We aimed to investigate the incidence and potential predictors of CAS progression in a low-income rural area in China that has a high prevalence of stroke. Methods A population-based cohort study was conducted on individuals aged ≥45 years from 2014 to 2019. Multivariable analyses were used to investigate the predictors of carotid plaque (CP) formation, plaque number, and carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT). Results A total of 1479 participants were finally enrolled in this study. The incidence rate of CP was 42.9 cases per 1000 person-years, and the progression of median CIMT was 137.50 μm over five years. The risk of CP formation increased 2-fold in participants aged ≥75 years (P = 0.002) compared with those aged 45-54 years. The corresponding risk was 59% higher in participants with hypertension (P = 0.001) and 72% higher in alcohol drinkers (P = 0.006). With each 1- standard deviations (SD) increase in high- and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels, the risk of CP occurrence decreased by 16% (P = 0.016) and increased by 29% (P = 0.002), respectively. Participants aged ≥75 years exhibited a 3.3-fold higher risk of having a high number of plaques than those aged 45-54 years (P = 0.014). Moreover, older age and the waist-to-hip ratio were independent predictors of CIMT progression. Conclusions This is the first longitudinal study to explore the incidence and predictors of CAS progression in a low-income rural population in China with a high prevalence of stroke. More detailed and precise strategies for prevention and intervention of CAS progression are necessary, especially in low-income rural areas in China.