Optimizing the impact of medications for opioid use disorder at release from prison and jail settings: A microsimulation modeling study

Background We examined the impact of expanded access to medications for opioid use disorder (MOUD) in a unified prison and jail system on post-release, opioid-related overdose mortality. Methods We developed a microsimulation model to simulate a population of 55,000 persons at risk of opioid-related overdose mortality in Rhode Island. The effect of an extended-release (XR) naltrexone only intervention and the effect of providing access to all three MOUD (i.e., methadone, buprenorphine, and XR-naltrexone) at release from incarceration on cumulative overdose death over eight years (2017–2024) were compared to the standard of care (i.e., limited access to MOUD). Results In the standard of care scenario, the model predicted 2385 opioid-related overdose deaths between 2017 and 2024. An XR-naltrexone intervention averted 103 deaths (4.3% reduction), and access to all three MOUD averted 139 deaths (5.8% reduction). Among those with prior year incarceration, an XR-naltrexone only intervention and access to all three MOUD reduced overdose deaths by 22.8% and 31.6%, respectively. Conclusions Expanded access to MOUD in prison and jail settings can reduce overdose mortality in a general, at-risk population. However, the real-world impact of this approach will vary by levels of incarceration, treatment enrollment, and post-release retention.