Pakistan and the future of Afghanistan

According to several reports, it appears that the stage is set for the long-awaited intra-Afghan negotiations (IAN) between rival factions. Both the Afghan Taliban and the Government of Afghanistan expressed their readiness to start their first official direct talks, which will be held in Qatar. After contributing to the U.S.-Taliban peace deal – which is commonly recognised as an essential step towards the start of the IAN – Pakistan aims to take on a central role in Afghanistan’s future political developments. Pakistan’s civilian and military leadership are therefore trying to normalise their tense relations with the Afghan government. So far, Islamabad continues to support the peace deal between Washington and the Afghan Taliban – and the notion of a power-sharing agreement between the insurgency group and the political leadership in Kabul. However, Islamabad’s interests and policy remain unchanged and are not conducive for an understanding between the major actors in Afghanistan. Pakistan will thus continue to damage peace and stability in its western neighbourhood. Afghanistan will furthermore not only be increasingly affected by the Pakistan-India conflict but also become a new theatre in the evolving India-China conflict.