The tadpole problem

We examine the mechanism of moduli stabilization by fluxes in the limit of a large number of moduli. We conjecture that one cannot stabilize all complex-structure moduli in F-theory at a generic point in moduli space (away from singularities) by fluxes that satisfy the bound imposed by the tadpole cancelation condition. More precisely, while the tadpole bound in the limit of a large number of complex-structure moduli goes like 1/4 of the number of moduli, we conjecture that the amount of charge induced by fluxes stabilizing all moduli grows faster than this, and is therefore larger than the allowed amount. Our conjecture is supported by two examples: K3 x K3 compactifications, where by using evolutionary algorithms we find that moduli stabilization needs fluxes whose induced charge is 44% of the number of moduli, and Type IIB compactifications on CP^3, where the induced charge of the fluxes needed to stabilize the D7-brane moduli is also 44% of the number of these moduli. Proving our conjecture would rule out de Sitter vacua obtained via antibrane uplift in long warped throats with a hierarchically small supersymmetry breaking scale, which require a large tadpole.
35 pages. v2 references added. v3 conventions unified, summary table added